The new US President Donald Trump since the beginning of assumption of the office has repeatedly said that the US will probably use military option against Pyongyang. The president ordered deployment of naval strike groups to the Korean Peninsula as part of measures to press the North Korean leadership.
The west Asian country has conducted several military exercises, including mass defense missile firing, to send a clear signal to the American administration that Korean leadership is not going to back down from its stances. Such steps have put Washington and its allies in a tight corner on how to make decisions to deter further North Korean missile tests. The confusion is even doubled as they know that any uncalculated measures in East Asia can push the global economy into critical conditions, and deal them, and the others, great economic blows. China’s serious concerns and warnings over ramifications of such collision between the two nuclear states on its economy are another roadblock seen by the Americans ahead of their use of military choices against Pyongyang.
But beside fears of economic consequences of waging any war in the Korean Peninsula other factors are crucial in limiting the US options in use of force against Pyeongyang, including the North’s possession of nuclear warheads and long-range missiles, watertight North Korean domestic unity, unpredictability of the behavior of the young leader of North Korea, Russian and Chinese opposition to the military option, Pyongyang’s threats against the American military installations in Japan and South Korea as well the naval vessels in the Pacific Ocean, and lack of adequate American public support for another war.
Despite the fact that the White House leaders have repeatedly emphasized that they might take military action against North Korea if needed, the unpredictable consequences will make Washington avoid the risk of going to the battle.
That is why after a heated wave of threats to resort to military choices by the US— majorly playing out in the form of media propaganda—with a mediation of powers such as China the enthusiasm for confrontation has begun to wind down, and now Washington returns to the less costly choice: the sanctions. It will likely resort to punitive measures including freezing North Korea leaders’ bank accounts, pressing for the United Nations Security Council’s anti-North resolution, and promoting further propaganda against the Pyongyang’s leader Kim Jong-un.
The new round of sanctions might come with support from other powers especially Beijing which supports Pyongyang but at the same time finds it extraordinarily defiant, though there are practical evidences that sanctioning North Korea has not been much effective in pressing its leadership to quit developing nuclear and missile programs. Still the restrictive measures can compensate for the American decline to attack North Korea.
In general, it seems that the US faces many hurdles to launch military campaign against Pyongyang.. But Washington needs to save face in its confrontation with North Korea. So the current tensions are expected to keep unfolding until the atmosphere is prepared for imposing fresh round of sanctions that are supposed to help the US get out of the crisis while surviving humiliation.
from Instituto Manquehue - rss http://ift.tt/2qNVkPK